Cet article propose un examen des effets de la mondialisation sur la volatilite macroeconomique des pays occidentaux, dans le care d'un modele stochastique d'equilibre general dynamique a deux pays et deux biens. Ces pays se distinguent essentiellement par les proportions de travailleurs...

This paper proposes an empirical investigation of the impact of oil price forecast errors on inflation forecast errors for two different sets of recent forecasts data: the median of SPF inflation forecasts for the U.S. and the Central Bank inflation forecasts for France. Mainly two salient...

This paper investigates the predictive accuracy of two alternative forecasting strategies, namely the forecast and information combinations. Theoretically, there should be no role for forecast combinations in a world where information sets can be instantaneously and costlessly combined. However,...

This paper explores the existence of a bounce-back effect in inventory investment using the European Commission opinion survey on stocks of finished products in manufacturing and retail trade sectors. The data are quarterly balance for France, Germany and a European aggregate, from 1985q1 to...

The high persistence of the PPP deviations is well documented in empirical work about real exchange rates. Our paper explores the possibility that, in presence of e.g. shipping costs, a nonlinear representation is more relevant for the real exchange rate.

In this paper we use a Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) model to capture the non-linear dynamics of 7 real effective exchange rates, defines for the recent floating period. The so-called real exchange rate -real interest rate model is exploited in a novel way to define the thresholds.

This paper proposes a two-regime Bounce-Back Function augmented Self-Exciting Threshold AutoRegression (SETAR) which allows for various shapes of recoveries from the recession regime. It relies on the bounce-back effects first analyzed in a Markov-Switching setup by Kim, Morley and Piger [2005]...