A recent debate in the forecasting literature revolves around the inability of macroecono-metric models to improve on simple univariate predictors, since the onset of the so-called Great Moderation. This paper explores the consequences of equilibrium indeterminacy for quantitative forecasting...

<!--Début du contenu @xml:lang="en"-->?Recent research in industrial organization has emphasized the strategic value of incomplete contracts in vertical inter-firm relationships. This paper offers a screening rationale for contractual incompleteness in a class of producer-retailer economies when countervailing incentives arise. By...

This paper studies the relationship between interest group political influence and allocation of decisionmaking power in a potentially divided government. We consider a simple endogenous policy model in which a legislator is in charge of setting the levels of two different policy instruments - a...

In this note, a class of nonlinear dynamic models under rational expectations is studied. A particular solution is found using a model reference adaptive technique via an extended Kalman filtering algorithm, for which initial conditions knowledge only is required.

This article applies cointegration techniques to estimate a monthly demand system for meat in Italy. In contrast to existing studies where Engle and Granger's two step procedure and Triangular Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM) representations are usually exploited, it applies a cointegrated...

This paper develops a dynamic modeling approach for the Almost Ideal Demand System, which is consistent with the rational addiction theory. The forward-looking hypothesis is combined with that of convex adjustment costs in the presence of non-stationary cointegrated variables. Estimation is...

This paper develops a dynamic modeling approach for the Almost Ideal Demand System, which is consistent with the rational addiction theory. The forward-looking hypothesis is combined with that of convex adjustment costs in the presence of non-stationary cointegrated variables. Estimation is...

This note points out a hitherto unrecognised identification issue in a class of rational expectations (RE) models with news shocks. We show that different degrees of anticipation (information flows) have strikingly different implications for the identifiability of the underlying structural...

This paper studies first-order approximate solutions to near-rational dynamic stochastic models. Under near-rationality, subjective beliefs are distorted away from rational expectations via a change of measure process which fulfils some regularity conditions. As a main result, we show that...

This note warns against the use of noncausal VARs as a reliable test for indeterminacy. By means of a simple example, we show that determinate models may well entail nonfundamental ARMA equilibrium reduced forms - which only (and uniquely) depend on the fundamental structural shocks -, whereas...