This paper revisits the yield spread's usefulness for predicting future real GDP growth. We show that the contribution of the spread can be decomposed into the effect of expected future changes in short rates and the effect of the term premium. We find that both factors are relevant for...

This paper introduces a methodology to estimate the re-use of collateral based on actual transaction data. With a comprehensive dataset from the Swiss franc repo market we are able to provide the first systematic empirical study on the re-use of collateral. We find that re-use was most popular...

To date, various central banks have lacked detailed statistical evidence on developments in the unsecured interbank money market. Furfine (1999) introduced the idea of calculating unsecured overnight interbank lending by using data of a RTGS system. Based on data from the Swiss payment system...

This paper studies the ability of external imbalances to indicate subsequent exchange rate returns. We propose a simple twist of the Gourinchas and Rey (2007) approximation to the intertemporal budget constraint which is valid for countries that are net creditors (or net debtors) consistently...

This paper explores the robustness of behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) models, focusing on a panel specification with Swiss franc real bilateral rates as dependent variables. We use Bayesian model averaging to illustrate model uncertainty, and employ real exchange rates computed from...

Although the effects of economic news announcements on asset prices are well established, these relationships are unlikely to be stable. This paper documents the time variation in the responses of yield curves and exchange rates using high frequency data from January 2000 through August 2011....

We analyse bilateral Swiss franc exchange rate returns in an asset pricing framework to evaluate the Swiss franc's safe haven characteristics. A "safe haven" currency is a currency that offers hedging value against global risk, both on average and in particular in crisis episodes. To explore...

Although the effects of economic news announcements on asset prices are well established, these relationships are unlikely to be stable. This paper documents the time variation in the responses of yield curves and exchange rates using high frequency data from January 2000 through August 2011....

The global recession of 2008-09 led to monetary and fiscal policy responses by central banks and government authorities that were often unconventional in size and scope. A study of expansionary measures employed during the recession suggests that overall, the policies were likely effective in...

Although the effects of economic news announcements on asset prices are well established, these relationships are unlikely to be stable. This paper documents the time variation in the responses of yield curves and exchange rates using high-frequency data from January 2000 through August 2011....