Uncertainty –that is, a rise in unknown and immeasurable risk rather than the measurable risk that the financial sector specializes in managing– is at the heart of the recent liquidity crisis. The financial instruments and derivative structures underpinning the recent growth in credit...

Aggregate consumption growth risk explains why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. Domestic investors earn negative excess returns on low...

In a model with housing collateral, the ratio of housing wealth to human wealth shifts the conditional distribution of asset prices and consumption growth. A decrease in house prices reduces the collateral value of housing, increases household exposure to idiosyncratic risk, and increases the...

We present a theory in which the key driver of short-term debt issued by the financial sector is the portfoliodemandforsafeandliquidassetsbythenon-financial sector. Households ’ demand for safe andliquidassetsdrivesapremiumonsuchassetsthatthefinancial sector exploits by owning risky and...

<DIV>The recent financial crisis and the difficulty of using mainstream macroeconomic models to accurately monitor and assess systemic risk have stimulated new analyses of how we measure economic activity and the development of more sophisticated models in which the financial sector plays a greater...</div>

We develop a model in which the capital of the intermediary sector plays a critical role in determining asset prices. The model is cast within a dynamic general equilibrium economy, and the role for intermediation is derived endogenously based on optimal contracting considerations. Low...

holders also have downward sloping demand curves. Groups for whom the liquidity of Treasuries is likely to be more important have steeper demand curves. The results have bearing for important questions in finance and macroeconomics. We discuss implications for the behavior of corporate bond...

We evaluate the effect of the Federal Reserve’s purchase of long-term Treasuries and other long-term bonds ("QE1" in 2008-2009 and "QE2" in 2010-2011) on interest rates. Using an event-study methodology that exploits both daily and intra-day data, we find a large and significant drop in...