Stationary I(0) models employed in yield curve analysis typically imply an unrealistically low degree of volatility in long-run short-rate expectations due to fast mean reversion. In this paper we propose a novel multivariate affine term structure model with a two-fold source of persistence in...

Previous research has found that the response of hours worked to a technology shock crucially depends on whether the variable hours is assumed to be an I(0) or an I(1) variable ex-ante. In this paper we employ a multivariate fractionally integrated model which allows us to determine...

This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more than 80 percent of term premia in advanced economies. In particular they tend to...

This article estimates a fractional integration model with nonlinear deterministic trends for the inflation rates of five African countries. The results indicate that nonlinearities are present in the case of Angola and Lesotho, but not in the case of Botswana, Namibia and South Africa....

This paper first shows that survey-based expectations (SBE) outperform standard time series models in U.S. quarterly inflation out-of-sample prediction and that the term structure of survey-based inflation forecasts has predictive power over the path of future inflation changes. It then proposes...

The estimates of the U.S. term premium crucially depend upon the ex-ante decision on whether the short-term rate is either an I(0) or an I(1) process. In this paper we estimate a fractionally integrated (I(d)) model which simultaneously determines both the order of integration of the short-term...

This article contributes to the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) and excess consumption smoothness debate in the context of fractional integration. We show that the excess consumption smoothness result is a consequence of the quarterly data frequency commonly employed in the empirical work. In...

The estimates of the US term premium crucially depend upon the ex-ante decision on whether the short-term rate is either an I(0) or an I(1) process. In this paper we estimate a fractionally integrated (I(d)) model which simultaneously determines both the order of integration of the short-term...