A probability forecast scored ex post using a probability scoring rule (e.g. Brier) is analogous to a risky financial security. With only superficial adaptation, the same economic logic by which securities are valued ex ante – in particular, portfolio theory and the capital asset pricing...

This study provides new evidence regarding the effect of limit order book disclosure on trading behavior. The natural experiment affected by the Sydney Futures Exchange in January 2001, when it increased limit order book disclosure from depth at the best bid and ask prices to depth at the three...

Simulation evidence obtained within a Bayesian model of price-setting in a betting market, where anonymous gamblers queue to bet against a risk-neutral bookmaker, suggests that a gambler who wants to maximize future profits should trade on the advice of the analyst cum probability forecaster who...