In this paper, we attempt to evaluate whether a film's commercial performance can be forecast. The statistical distribution of film revenues in the UK is examined and found to have unbounded variance. This undermines much of the existing work relating a film's performance to its identifiable...

Previous work analyzing the demand for movie theater visits have had to rely entirely on highly aggregate time series data. Inevitably, this masks the significance of individual-specific effects that place constraints on such trip making. Further, while there have been cross-sectional revenue...

This paper explores methods of simulating Polya Urn Models using a spreadsheet. The Polya Urn model provides a statistical model of path dependent behaviour where the final equilibrium is determined by random chance or historical accident.

Cellular Automata (CA) can be used to illustrate how macro-level order can arise from micro-level interactions. Although it is possible to run simple CAs using pencil and paper, a computer is better able to keep track of all the interactions. This paper illustrates how simple CAs can be run on a...

Models of cinema demand have tended to employ aggregate data and focus on price and income as key variables. Surprisingly, the effects of travel time and location have not been formally investigated. The authors do so, following developments in the environmental economics literature, by...

A sample of 153 films from the UK top 15 chart is examined to test the hypothesis of increasing returns to information. The results are consistent with those presented by De Vany and Walls, suggesting that increasing returns to information is a general feature of the film market.

This article investigates whether Google Trends search information can improve forecasts of cinema admissions. Using monthly data for the United Kingdom for the period 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2008, we examine various forecasting models that incorporate Google Trends search information. We...

Conventionally, the seasonal pattern in a time series is taken as exogenous. However, two recent studies from the US have suggested, the seasonal component in box office revenue may in part be endogenously determined. Films that are expected to do well tend to be released at times of peak...