This paper develops model selection and averaging methods for moment restriction models. We first propose a focused information criterion based on the generalized empirical likelihood estimator. We address the issue of selecting an optimal model, rather than a correct model, for estimating a...

This paper shows a potential pitfall of the exponential tilting (ET) estimator under misspecification. We show that the pseudo-true value of the ET estimator is not identified if the true distribution is not absolutely continuous with respect to the probability measures implied by the moment...

This paper proposes a focused information criterion (FIC) for variable selection in partially linear models. Our criterion is designed to select an optimal model for estimating a focus parameter, which is a parameter of interest. We estimate the model by the series method and jointly select the...

The problem of evaluating the goodness of the predictive distributions of hierarchical Bayesian and empirical Bayes models is investigated. A Bayesian predictive information criterion is proposed as an estimator of the posterior mean of the expected loglikelihood of the predictive distribution...

A Bayesian method for estimation of a hazard term structure is presented in a functional data analysis framework. The hazard terms structure is designed to include the effects of changes in economic conditions, as well as trends in stock prices and accounting variables from financial statements....

This article develops a new portfolio selection method using Bayesian theory. The proposed method accounts for the uncertainties in estimation parameters and the model specification itself, both of which are ignored by the standard mean-variance method. The critical issue in constructing an...

The traditional Bayesian factor analysis method is extended. In contrast to the case for previous studies, the matrix variate t-distribution is utilized to provide a prior density on the latent factors. This is a natural extension of the traditional model and yields many advantages. The crucial...

A Direct Monte Carlo (DMC) approach is introduced for posterior simulation in the Instrumental Variables (IV) model with one possibly endogenous regressor, multiple instruments and Gaussian errors under a flat prior. This DMC method can also be applied in an IV model (with one or multiple...

A description of computationally efficient methods for the Bayesian analysis of Student-t seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models with unknown degrees of freedom is given. The method combines a direct Monte Carlo (DMC) approach with an importance sampling procedure to calculate Bayesian...