Das vorliegende Papier schätzt auf Basis eines Probit-Modells die Wendepunkte des ifo-Geschäftserwartungsindex. Die übliche Vorgehensweise in der wissenschaftlichen Literatur wird um zwei Aspekte erweitert: Erstens werden zusätzlich zu einzelnen Variablen sogenannte Faktoren berücksichtigt,...

We analyze if and to what extent fundamental macroeconomic factors, temporary influences or more structural factors have contributed to the low levels of US bond yields over the last few years. For that purpose, we start with a general model of interest rate determination. The empirical part...

The subject of the study is the impact of the exchange rate on Gennany's balance of trade. The analysis hence focuses on the significance of invoicing practices as weIl as the factors which determine export and import prices and the volumes.The results reveal a largely classical reaction on the...

At the beginning of 1999 the euro was launched as a common currency in 11 European countries. This paper addresses empirically the medium to long-term forces driving the real euro-dollar exchange rate. Constructing a synthetic euro-dollar exchange rate over a period from 1975 to 1998 and...

This paper describes the demand and supply factors affecting the amounts of deposits held by banks with the Eurosystem in the first 18 months of Stage Three of EMU and differences to the years before. The paper starts from the methodology adopted in a recent study by James Hamilton on 'The...

JEL Classification: E41, E52, E58

In this paper we analyse household holdings of the broad monetary aggregate M3 in the euro area from 1991 until 2009. Households are the largest money-holding sector in the euro area. We develop four models, two in nominal, two in real terms, with satisfactory economic and statistical...

Am 22. Januar 2015 hat der EZB-Rat ein erweitertes Programm zum Ankauf von Vermögenswerten, das sogenannte »Quantitative Easing«, beschlossen. Thomas Jost, Hochschule Aschaffenburg, und Franz Seitz, Ostbayerische Technische Hochschule Weiden, kommentieren diese Entscheidung und ihre Konsequenzen.