I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

The large majority of the criteria for model selection are functions of the usual variance estimate for a regression model. The validity of the usual variance estimate depends on some assumptions, most critically the validity of the model being estimated. This is often violated in model...

The Bayesian revolution in statistics--where statistics is integrated with decision making in areas such as management, public policy, engineering, and clinical medicine--is here to stay. Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory states the case and in a self-contained, comprehensive way shows...

This paper develops asymptotic optimality theory for statistical treatment rules in smooth parametric and semiparametric models. Manski (2000, 2002, 2004) and Dehejia (2005) have argued that the problem of choosing treatments to maximize social welfare is distinct from the point estimation and...

Investment in infrastructure such as the information and communication technology sector requires large, substantial amounts, most of which are sunk or irreversible. Uncertainty of market demand, competition, costs and public policy complicates the investment decision process. This paper...

We develop a reliable Bayesian inference for the RIF-regression model of Firpo, Fortin and Lemieux (Econometrica, 2009) in which we first estimate the log wage distribution by a mixture of normal densities. This approach is pursued so as to provide better estimates in the upper tail of the wage...

This paper develops a systematic procedure of statistical inference for the ARMA model with unspecified and heavy-tailed heteroscedastic noises. We first investigate the least absolute deviation estimator (LADE) and the self-weighted LADE for the model. Both estimators are shown to be strongly...

This article analyzes the presence of a price bubble in the new house market for the Greater Santiago. For the above use di®erent methodologies on the Real Housing Prices Index (IRPV) prepared by CEC-CChC, all of which reject the presence of a housing bubble in the concerned market.

In this paper, we develop methods of the determination of the rank of random matrix. Using the matrix perturbation theory to construct or find a suitable bases of the kernel (null space) of the matrix and to determine the limiting distribution of the estimator of the smallest singular values. We...

Since Black, Jensen, and Scholes (1972) and Fama and MacBeth (1973), the two-pass cross-sectional regression (CSR) methodology has become the most popular approach for estimating and testing asset pricing models. Statistical inference with this method is typically conducted under the assumption...