This report is the basic documentation of the present (fifth) version of the Bank of Finland macroeconomic model, BOF5, built for policy simulation and forecasting. In constructing the model, consistent treatment of expectations is emphasized. Following current theoretical literature,...

To develop forecasting procedures with a forward-looking dynamic general equilibrium model, we built a small New-Keynesian model and calibrated it to euro area data. It was essential in this context that we allowed for long-run growth in GDP. We brought additional asset price equations based on...

This book provides a description of the main macroeconomic models used by the European Central Bank and the euro area national central banks (Eurosystem). These models are used to help prepare economic projections and scenario analysis for individual countries and the euro area as a whole.

While fiscal forecasting and monitoring has its roots in the accountability of governments for the use of public funds in democracies, the Stability and Growth Pact has significantly increased interest in budgetary forecasts in Europe, where they play a key role in the EU multilateral budgetary...

This paper compares the boom-bust cycle in Finland and Sweden 1984-1995 with the average boom-bust pattern in industrialized countries as calculated from an international sample for the period 1970-2002. Two clear conclusions emerge. First, the Finnish-Swedish experience is much more volatile...

This paper compares the boom-bust cycle in Finland and Sweden 1984-1995 with the average boom-bust pattern in industrialized countries as calculated from an international sample for the period 1970-2002. Two clear conclusions emerge. First, the Finnish-Swedish experience is much more volatile...

Cyclically adjusted government budget balances have become increasingly popular as a means of analysing the fiscal situation and changes in policy that result from the intentional actions of the government. As the actual budget balances are affected both by cyclical factors ('automatic...

While fiscal forecasting and monitoring has its roots in the accountability of governments for the use of public funds in democracies, the Stability and Growth Pact has significantly increased interest in budgetary forecasts in Europe, where they play a key role in EU multilateral budgetary...

Estimates of cyclically-adjusted budget balances, correcting actual government budget balances for business cycle fluctuations, are produced by many institutions, including the European Commission, the IMF and the OECD. This paper presents an alternative approach for the cyclical adjustment of...