This paper evaluates the usefulness of business sentiment indicators for forecasting developments in the Chinese real economy. We use data on diffusion indices collected by the People's Bank of China for forecasting industrial production, retail sales and exports. Our bivariate vector...

This paper evaluates the usefulness of business sentiment indicators for forecasting developments in the Chinese real economy. We use data on diffusion indices collected by the People’s Bank of China for forecasting industrial production, retail sales and exports. Our bivariate vector...

Using a macroeconometric framework, this paper analyses relationships among money, barter and inflation in Russia during the transition period. Following the development of a theoretical framework that introduces barter in a standard small open economy macro model, we estimate our model using...

Using a macroeconometric framework, this paper analyses relationships among money, barter and inflation in Russia during the transition period. Following the development of a theoretical framework that introduces barter in a standard small open economy macro model, we estimate our model using...

Most people seem to think that Russia’s economy and fiscal situation are still crucially tied up with international oil prices and the exchange rate of the rouble, although this view has recently been challenged by some analysts. Empirical research on this topic is, however, scanty. In this...

Most people seem to think that Russia's economy and fiscal situation are still crucially tied up with international oil prices and the exchange rate of the rouble, although this view has recently been challenged by some analysts. Empirical research on this topic is, however, scanty. In this...

Some observers argue that increased real integration has led to greater co-movement of prices internationally. We examine the evidence for cross-border price spillovers among economies participating in the pan-Asian cross-border production networks. Starting with country-level data, we find that...

Limited access to the formal financial sector is a common feature of the economic environment in many emerging market and developing economies. In this paper, we examine how the level of financial inclusion affects welfare-maximising monetary policy. Our theoretical framework is based on Galí,...