Macro-prudential policy is designed to address risk at a systemwide level, an example of which is mortgage default following excessive residential property lending in Ireland. Policy tools to address this risk, such as caps on loan- to-value and loan-to-income ratios, are used to build balance...

Overnight news yields difficulties for price discovery at market opening culminating in additional return volatility. Biais et al. (2007) show opening prices are sensitive to order flow from the pre-trading session. We investigate the existence of volatility asymmetry between opening and closing...

Recently, some notable contributions suggest that discretionary fiscal policy can be an effective and self-financing policy option in the presence of extreme macroeconomic conditions. Given the special relationship between the Irish sovereign and its main financial institutions, this paper...

Recently, some notable contributions suggest, that discretionary fiscal policy can be an effective and self- financing policy option in the presence of extreme macroeconomic conditions. Given the special relationship between the Irish sovereign and its main financial institutions, this paper...

This paper examines the role of credit and the macroeconomy in SME distress during a pro- longed economic downturn. Specically, we estimate the determinants of SME distress in Ireland during the severe financial and economic crisis which began in 2007/2008. We use a measure of dis- tress,...

The high level of mortgage arrears in the Irish financial system and the associated overhang on economic growth underlines the importance of prudent lending standards throughout the property cycle. Macro-prudential tools such as loan-to-value (LTV) ratio caps and loan-to-income (LTI) ratio caps...

This paper presents a framework for estimating losses for residential mortgage loans.At the core is a transitions-based probability of default model which yields directly observ- able cash-fl ows at the loan level. The estimated model includes coefficients on unemployment, Loan to Value ratio...

Using a uniquely constructed loan-level dataset of the residential mortgage book of Irish financial institutions, this paper provides a framework for estimating default probabilities of individual mort- gages. In contrast to the popular stock delinquency approach, this model provides estimates...

This Letter provides an overview of the Central Bank of Ireland's Loan Loss Forecasting framework. This framework, which utilises detailed loan-level data provided on a six-monthly basis by domestic Irish banks, includes internally- developed probability of default (PD) models and a cash ow...