A new technique is demonstrated for the simultaneous estimation of potential output and the Phillips curve. In this paper, we define potential output as the non-accelerating inflation level of output (NAILO). The NAILO is not a simple trend of actual output. Instead, it is the critical level of...

We examine whether the news shocks, as explored in Beaudry and Portier (2004), can be a major source of aggregate fluctuations. For this purpose, we extend a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, a la Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005), by allowing news shocks on the total factor...

In this paper, we set out the Japanese Economic Model (JEM), a large-scale macroeconomic model of the Japanese economy. Although the JEM is a theoretical model designed with a view to overcoming the Lucas ( 1976) critique of traditional large-scale macroeconomic models, it can also be used for...

This paper examines how and to what extent parameter estimates can be biased in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that omits the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on the nominal interest rate. Our Monte Carlo experiments using a standard sticky-price DSGE model show that no...

Recent studies document the deteriorating performance of forecasting models during the Great Moderation, which conversely implies that forecastability was higher in the preceding era when the economy was unexpectedly volatile. We explain this phenomenon in the context of equilibrium...

Recent studies attempt to quantify the empirical importance of news shocks (ie., anticipated future schocks) in business cycle fluctuations. This paper identifies news schocks in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model estimated with not only actual data but also forecast data. The...

Benhabib, Schmitt-Grohe, and Uribe (2001) argue for the existence of a deflation steady state when the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate is considered in a Taylor-type monetary policy rule. This paper estimates a medium-scale DSGE model with a deflation steady state for the Japanese...

We estimate a two-country open economy version of the New Keynesian DSGE model for the U.S. and the Euro area, using Bayesian techniques that allow for both determinacy and indeterminacy of the equilibrium. Our empirical analysis shows that the worldwide equilibrium is indeterminate due to a...

To what extent did the Bank of Japan's liquidity facilities for corporate financing reduce commercial paper (CP) issue-rates in Japan? To answer this question, we propose a simple structural model that illustrates the market for the CP operations and their effects on the CP primary market. Based...

To what extent did the Bank of Japan's liquidity provisions reduce the premium on money market rates over the year-ends in Japan? To answer this question, we propose a simple structural model that illustrates the year-end operations and the year-end interbank money markets. Based on the...