The paper shows that the conversion from national currency bank notes to hard-ECU notes is promoted by the provision of an implicit and free currency call option. This wealth effect is caused by the devaluation-proof definition of this currency. Nevertheless, additional transactions and...

The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...

The paper analyzes the role of a multilateral payments union (PU) between East European countries (EEPU) as an intermediate solution in the process to full convertibility. After a description of the main functions of a PU, which is based on the historical model of the European Payments Union, it...

The debate on EMU has been very influenced by the traditional theory of optimum currency areas (OCAs). The paper shows that this theory is not an ideal yardstick for an assessment of EMU. Its assumptions are not very realistic and its focus on asymmetric real shocks is much too narrow. In...

Although the IS/LM-AS/AD model is still the central tool of macroeconomic teaching in most macroeconomic textbooks, it has been criticized by several economists. Colander (1995) demonstrated that the framework is logically inconsistent, Romer (2000) showed that it is unable to deal with a...

Can monetary policy trigger pronounced boom-bust cycles in house prices and create persistent business cycles? We address this question by building heuristics into an otherwise standard DSGE model. As a result, monetary policy sets off waves of optimism and pessimism ('animal spirits') that...

Svensson auf der einen und McCallum und Nelson auf der anderen Seite haben in einer Reihe von Beiträgen kontrovers diskutiert, an welcher geldpolitischer Regel sich eine Notenbank orientieren sollte (vgl. Svensson, L., 2003a, 2003b, 2005, Svensson L., u. Woodford, M. 2005). Hierbei plädiert...