The author surveys the statistical evidence on average stock return and the economic theories that try to explain it. The statistical evidence suggests a period of low returns, followed by a slow reversion to a high long-term average. However, that evidence is quite uncertain. Standard economics...

How does traditional portfolio theory adapt to the new facts? The old "two-fund" theorem becomes a "many-fund" theorem; some investors can improve returns by investing in portfolio strategies that let them take on nonmarket sources of risk; and other investors can shed nonmarket risks in the...

In the last 15 years, the cherished "random walk" view that stock returns are unpredictable, the "CAPM" view the market is the only benchmark and market exposure the only source of returns, and the "expectations hypothesis" relating interest rates of various maturities and countries have all...

It's fun to pass judgment on waste, size, usefulness, complexity, and excessive compensation. But as economists, we have an analytical structure for thinking about these questions. "I don’t understand it" doesn't mean "it's bad," or "regulation will improve it." That attitude pervades...

I analyze monetary policy with interest on reserves and a large balance sheet. I show that conventional theories do not determine inflation in this regime, so I base the analysis on the fiscal theory of the price level. I find that monetary policy can peg the nominal rate, and determine expected...

I analyze monetary policy with interest on reserves and a large balance sheet. I show that conventional theories do not determine inflation in this regime, so I base the analysis on the fiscal theory of the price level. I find that monetary policy can peg the nominal rate, and determine expected...