We propose a novel identification scheme for a non-technology business cycle shock, that we label Òsentiment.Ó This is a shock orthogonal to identified surprise and news TFP shocks that maximizes the short-run forecast error variance of an expectational variable, alternatively a GDP forecast...

We propose a novel identification scheme for a non-technology business cycle shock, that we label "sentiment." This is a shock orthogonal to identified surprise and news TFP shocks that maximizes the short-run forecast error variance of an expectational variable, alternatively a GDP forecast or...

Partners in emerging risk representative application (ERRA) A3 'Emerging risks related to the industrial use of automated and un-manned surveillance of industrial infrastructure' develop a set of new technologies to automate aerial surveillance by collecting images with a drone and automatically...

We analyze the optimal Taylor rule in a standard New Keynesian model. If the central bank can observe the output gap and the inflation rate without error, then it is typically optimal to respond infinitely strongly to observed deviations from the central bank's targets. If it observes inflation...

This paper uses a database covering the universe of French firms for the period 1990-2007 to provide a forensic account of the role of individual ifrms in generating aggregate fluctuations. We set up a simple multi-sector model of heterogeneous firms selling to multiple markets to motivate a...

This paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the impact of comparative advantage in international trade on fertility. It builds a model in which industries differ in the extent to which they use female relative to male labor and countries are characterized by Ricardian comparative advantage...

This timely book deploys new tools and measures to understand how global production networks change the nature of global economic interdependence, and how that in turn changes our understanding of which policies are appropriate in this new environment. Bringing to bear an array of the latest...

One of the most striking aspects of the recent recession is the collapse in international trade. This paper uses disaggregated quarterly and monthly data on U.S. imports and exports to shed light on the anatomy of this collapse. We find that the recent reduction in trade relative to overall...

This paper evaluates the welfare impact of observed levels of migration and remittances in both origins and destinations, using a quantitative multi- sector model of the global economy calibrated to aggregate and firm-level data on 60 developed and developing countries. Our framework accounts...