Der Konjunkturaufschwung im Euroraum ist beendet. Eine Vielzahl von Faktoren, wie die Situation der Immobilien- und Finanzmärkte sowie Wechselkurse und Rohstoffpreise, wirkt sich belastend aus, so dass der Euroraum im Prognosezeitraum voraussichtlich eine Rezession erleben wird. Wir revidieren...

Die Weltkonjunktur sieht sich derzeit erheblichen Belastungen gegenüber. Die Konjunkturlokomotive Vereinigte Staaten ist als Folge der Immobilienkrise und der dadurch ausgelösten Probleme im Finanzsektor ausgefallen. Auch in anderen Ländern hat sich die Lage an den Immobilienmärkten...

The dates of U.S. business cycle are reported by NBER with a considerable delay, so an early notion of turning points is of particular interest. This paper proposes a novel sequential approach designed for timely signaling these turning points. A directional cumulated sum decision rule is...

Empirical evidence suggests a sharp volatility decline of the growth in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the mid-1980s. Using Bayesian methods, we analyze whether a volatility reduction can also be detected for the German GDP. Since statistical inference for volatility processes critically...

The yield spread is a well documented leading indicator of GDP growth. Estrella (2005) proposes a model to explain this relationship. Within the model, the leading properties of the yield spread are determined by the monetary policy. Accordingly, changes of the leading properties that have been...

Despite the single currency, yields on government bonds in the Euro Area deviate from German bond yields. These bond spreads are usually attributed to differing default and liquidity risks. Recent research points out that time-varying global factors, approximated by risk measures or short term...

This analysis provides evidence for the costs housing crises induce in terms of GDP growth and under what circumstances these crises are particularly costly. Housing crises are often followed by recessions that are longer and deeper than other recessions. According to empirical estimates,a...

This paper provides statistical evidence suggesting that in industrial countries, recessions that are associated with either banking crises or housing crises dampen output far more than ordinary recessions. Using a parametric panel framework that allows for a bounceback of the level of output in...