The early 21st century saw Australia experience its largest and longest terms of trade boom. This paper places this recent boom in a long-run historical context by comparing the current episode with earlier cycles. While similarities exist across most episodes, current macroeconomic policy...

Growth in Australian exports was weaker than had been expected over the past 10 years across all major categories: resources, rural, manufactures and services. While exports of bulk commodities and liquefied natural gas (LNG) grew strongly in response to higher demand from Asia, this was partly...

The Australian economy has in recent years experienced the longest terms of trade boom in its history. This boom has had important macroeconomic outcomes – such as an elevated real exchange rate, large-scale investment in the resources sector and higher national income. The terms of trade have...

The early 21st century saw Australia experience its largest and longest terms of trade boom. This paper places this recent boom in a long-run historical context by comparing the current episode with earlier cycles. While similarities exist across most episodes, current macroeconomic policy...

The early 21st century saw Australia experience its largest and longest terms of trade boom. This paper places this recent boom in a long-run historical context by comparing the current episode with earlier cycles. While similarities exist across most episodes, current macroeconomic policy...

We estimate an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of Australia with a number of shocks, frictions and rigidities, matching a large number of observable time series. We find that both foreign and domestic shocks are important drivers of the Australian business cycle....

It has been argued that the effect of a change in the monetary policy interest rate on aggregate demand may be larger at higher levels of indebtedness through its impact on cash flows. However, the extent of credit constraints may be at least as important, if not more so. In particular, monetary...

We develop a method of quantifying the uncertainty surrounding the estimates of the fundamental inflation implied by the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). The uncertainty is represented as a band around the fundamental inflation, and encompasses the sampling uncertainty of both the estimates...

The surge in demand for resources over the past decade led to sharp increases in the terms of trade not just for Australia, but also for other economies with comparable resource exports such as Brazil, Canada, Chile, Russia and South Africa. Each of these economies experienced an increase in...

The Korean economy has grown rapidly over the past half century, driven in part by the development of an export-oriented manufacturing sector. While the electronics industry has expanded rapidly since the 1970s, there has also been a shift towards more steel-intensive industries, such as...