El presente trabajo tiene por objeto investigar la eficiencia de la curva de rendimientos para predecir la actividad económica real en el área del Euro. Durante los últimos veinte años, diversos estudios han demostrado que la curva de rendimientos es un indicador adelantado,...

The purpose in this article is to investigate the implications of a non-linear supply curve for the standard discretionary inflation outcome obtained when the central bank has quadratic preferences. Some implications for the optimal output target and degree of conservativeness of the central...

Pari-mutuel odds for longshots in UK horseraces exceed those offered by bookmakers. This effect is less for winning compared to losing horses and is explained by informed gamblers betting disproportionately with the pari-mutuel on winning horses.

Within the expected utility framework skewness of return has been suggested as a rationale for why risk averse gamblers might choose to gamble when expected returns are negative. The argument is that risk-averse agents desire positive skewness, ceteris paribus, and are prepared to trade off a...

The purpose in this letter is first to review briefly the empirical results on the relationship between real interest rates and real exchange rates; this empirical literature provides little support for the hypothesis of Roll that expected real interest rates are equal in general. Our second aim...

We analyze the nonlinear behavior of the information content in the spread for future real economic activity. The spread linearly predicts one year ahead real growth in nine industrial production sectors of the US and four of the UK over the last forty years. However, recent investigations on...

Hegwood and Papell (2002) conclude on the basis of analysis in a linear framework that long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) does not hold for 16 real exchange rate series, which were analyzed in Diebold, Husted, and Rush (1991) for the period 1792–1913 under the Gold Standard. Rather, PPP...