This paper compares different forecasting approaches for the Argentine monetary aggregate M2, which is a key variable for monetary policy. First, we estimate a conditional equilibrium-correction model of money demand, which is theory consistent and accounts for the main features of the data....

This paper studies the relationship between devaluation and default risks during Argentina's convertibility regime. Before default and devaluation occurred, a harder variant of the currency regime was under discussion. An often-suggested argument among the supporters of dollarization was that...

The purpose of this note is to contribute to modeling time series that may be characterized as integrated. In particular, a discussion about the use of standard distributions in regression models is included and some essential concepts are previously reviewed to this effect. The main objective...

Se ha señalado en numerosos debates recientes que el proceso de crecimiento y estabilización macroeconómica iniciado en Argentina a comienzos de los años noventa, vino acompañado por una insuficiencia del ahorro doméstico para financiar el fuerte crecimiento de las inversiones. La...

Se estudian las implicancias fiscales y energéticas de la escalada en los precios del petróleo estimando efectos directos e indirectos. Dado que las economías se hallan en una fase expansiva, estimamos, un impacto “latente”sobre el PIB, respecto de las condiciones iniciales (año 2003),...

This paper studies the fiscal and energy implications of the surge in petroleum prices, estimating both direct and indirect effects. Since these economies are in an expansionary phase, it estimates a "latent" impact on GDP, which in turn leads to a latent loss in fiscal revenue of an average 0....

During the past two decades, Latin American countries have made pioneering efforts in reforming infrastructure services. The "first generation of reforms" encompassed widespread privatization, deregulation and restructuring of the provision of energy, water, transport and telecommunications...