This paper documents the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian Model for Canadian data. We repeatedly estimate the model over samples of increasing lengths, forecasting out-of-sample one to four quarters ahead at each step. We then compare these forecasts with those arising...

This paper documents the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian Model for Canada. We estimate our variant of the model on a series of rolling subsamples, computing out-of-sample forecasts one to eight quarters ahead at each step. We compare these forecasts to those arising from...

Simple econometric tests reported in the literature consistently report what appears to be a bias in inflation expectations. These results are commonly interpreted as constituting evidence overturning the hypothesis of rational expectations. In this paper, we investigate the validity of such an...

This paper extends the use of Rao (1982b)'s Quadratic Entropy (RQE) to modern portfolio theory. It argues that the RQE of a portfolio is a valid, exible and unifying approach to measuring portfolio diversification. The paper demonstrates that portfolio's RQE can encompass most existing measures,...

negative shocks to technology.

profits in turn reduces the return to innovation, and a link between inflation and the growth rate emerges. We explore this relationship, relate it to the empirical literature on the growth-inflation connection, and quantify its welfare implications. In particular, we show that the costs of...

The long-run relation between growth and inflation has not yet been studied in the context of nominal price and wage rigidities, despite the fact that these rigidities now figure prominently in workhorse macroeconomic models. We therefore integrate staggered price- and wage-setting into an...

We estimate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and other external factors on hours worked and employment in Canada's manufacturing industries. The analysis is based on a dynamic model of labour demand and the econometric strategy employs a dynamic OLS approach for cointegrating...

What are the steady-state implications of inflation in a general-equilibrium model with real per capita output growth and staggered nominal price and wage contracts? Surprisingly, a benchmark calibration implies an optimal inflation rate of -1.9 percent. The analysis also shows that trend...

This paper studies the steady-state costs of inflation in a general-equilibrium model with real per capita output growth and staggered nominal price and wage contracts. Our analysis shows that trend inflation has important effects on the economy when combined with nominal contracts and real...