The world bulk shipping market has been in a peak period since 2003, and this has lasted an incredibly long time considering that the markets are much more complex than before. This paper investigates the characteristics of volatility in dry bulk freight rates of different vessel sizes...

The protracted decline in output volatility – the Great Moderation – began to reach its limits by the mid-1990s, and volatility even showed a mild rise in some countries. Domestic shocks did not typically rise but we find that they did spread more rapidly across borders. One reason for the...

We document the transmission of monetary policy and risk-premium shocks in Hungary, by applying recent advances in the Bayesian estimation of large VAR models. The method allows extracting information from over 100 series, opening the "black box" of the transmission mechanism to provide the most...

Increases in German core inflation following the 2007 VAT hike were smaller than expected, leading to speculation about delayed inflationary effects. This paper argues to the contrary that price increases in advance of the VAT hike explain the small increase upon implementation. We find that...

This paper draws attention to inconsistencies in estimating simple monetary policy rules and their implications for policy advice. We simulate a macroeconomic model with a backward reaction function similar to Taylor (1993). We estimate different versions of a policy rule, using these simulated...

This paper classifies countries that define their monetary policy framework by an inflation target into full-fledged inflation targeters, eclectic inflation targeters and inflation targeting lite regimes. This classification is based on indicators of the clarity and credibility of the commitment...

This paper provides some practical advice on establishing initial conditions in support of an inflation-targeting monetary framework. These conditions are divided into four areas: a mandate in support of an inflation objective and accountability for achieving this objective; macroeconomic...

This paper draws attention to inconsistencies in estimating simple monetary policy rules and their implications for policy advice. We simulate a macroeconomic model with a backward reaction function similar to Taylor (1993). We estimate different versions of a policy rule, using these simulated...

Even prior to the extreme volatility just observed, output growth volatility-following protracted decline-was flattening or mildly rising in some countries. More widespread was an increasing tendency from the mid-1990s for shocks in one country to transmit rapidly to other countries, creating...

This paper surveys the economic literature on simple policy rules and analyzes econometric methods used to estimate them, emphasizing effects of model misspecification. We draw attention to inconsistencies in evaluation of the rules and implications for policy advice, which is commonly done...