Showing 1 - 10 of 82
We re-estimate statistical properties and predictive power of a set of Phillips curves, which are expressed as linear and lagged relationships between the rates of inflation, unemployment, and change in labour force. For France, several relationships were estimated eight years ago. The change...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011109998
We model the evolution of age-dependent personal income distribution and inequality as expressed by the Gini ratio. In our framework, inequality is an emergent property of a theoretical model we develop for the dynamics of individual incomes. The model relates the evolution of personal income to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011259180
The growth rate of real GDP per capita in the biggest OECD countries is represented as a sum of two components – a steadily decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in some specific age population. The long term trend in the growth rate is modelled by an inverse function of real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011259294
The evolution of the rate of price inflation, (t), and unemployment, u(t), in Japan has been modeled within the Phillips curve framework. As an extension to the Phillips curve, we represent both variables as linear functions of the change rate of labor force. All models were first estimated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011260989
Five years ago, we found three distinct periods characterized by sustainable quasi-linear trends in the difference between the headline consumer price index (CPI) and the core CPI in the USA. Then we revealed similar behavior in the differences between the CPI and indices of various consumer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011112812
The Lucas critique has exposed the problem of the trade-off between changes in monetary policy and structural breaks in economic time series. The search for and characterization of such breaks has been a major econometric task ever since. We have developed an integral technique similar to CUSUM...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010858978
It was demonstrated that the difference between the PPI of durable and nondurable goods can be predicted at a several year horizon. The prediction consists of three steps. First, we show that the difference between producer price index for durable and nondurable goods is characterized by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005036832
Labor productivity in Turkey, Spain, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, and New Zealand has been analyzed and modeled. These counties extend the previously analyzed set of the US, UK, Japan, France, Italy, and Canada. Modelling is based on the link between the rate of labor participation and real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005014716
In the United States, there exist robust linear trends in the differences between headline (or core) CPI and price indices for individual subcategories of goods and services such as energy, food, housing, etc. Chiefly these differences can be represented by a piece-wise straight line. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005105697
Using an analog of the boundary element method in engineering and science, we analyze and model unemployment rate in Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States as a function of inflation and the change in labor force. Originally, the model linking unemployment to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083506