Countries in which inflation targeting has been adopted require high quality inflation forecasts. The Polish National Bank adopted a variant of implicit inflation targeting and therefore the ability to forecast inflation is critically important to policy makers. Since the domestic price...

Yuan real effective exchange rate misalignment is esitimated in a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model for the period 1997 to third quarter 2007. Using the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition a vector error correction model (VECM) of the exchange rate as a function of macroeconomic...

This paper first describes the major concerns associated with SWFs, mainly revolving around state ownership and lack of transparency. It then focuses on the National Fund for the Future of Kazakhstan (the “oil fund”, or NOF) and Samruk Kazyna (SK), the holding company for state owned...

This article develops time-series models to represent three alternative, potential monetary policy regimes as monetary policy returns to normal. The first regime is a return to the high and volatile inflation rate of the 1970s. The second regime, the one that most Federal Reserve officials and...

In this article, time-series models are developed to represent three alternative, potential monetary policy regimes as monetary policy returns to normal. The first regime is a return to the high and volatile inflation rate of the 1970s. The second regime, the one expected by most Federal Reserve...

This look at interest rates and inflation in the U.S. over the past 50 years helps to clarify ideas about the Fed’s monetary policy and its own credibility. The authors examine three periods corresponding to three different policies: when the Fed operated without credibility, when it was...

Which monetary regime is associated with the most stable price level? A commodity money regime such as the classical gold standard has long been associated with long-run price stability. But critics of the day argued that the regime was associated with too much short-run price variability and...