Showing 1 - 10 of 44
We evaluate the forecasting performance of time series models for realized volatility, which accommodate long memory, level shifts, leverage effects, day-of-the-week and holiday effects, as well as macroeconomic news announcements. Applying the models to daily realized volatility for the S&P 500...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005428820
This article investigates the merits of high-frequency intraday data when forming mean-variance efficient stock portfolios with daily rebalancing from the individual constituents of the S&P 100 index. We focus on the issue of determining the optimal sampling frequency as judged by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005511901
This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the 'International Journal of Forecasting', 2009, 27, 282-303.<P> The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally...</p>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257135
This paper investigates the merits of high-frequency intraday data when forming minimum variance portfolios and minimum tracking error portfolios with daily rebalancing from the individual constituents of the S&P 100 index. We focus on the issue of determining the optimal sampling frequency,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137077
The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137234
This discussion paper resulted in a publication in 'Econometric Reviews', 2008, 27, 199-229.<P> This paper investigates the merits of high-frequency intraday data when forming minimum variance portfolios and minimum tracking error portfolios with daily rebalancing from the individual constituents...</p>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255835
We consider tests for sudden changes in the unconditional volatility of conditionally heteroskedastic time series based on cumulative sums of squares. When applied to the original series these tests suffer from severe size distortions, where the correct null hypothesis of no volatility change is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731577
We present a road map for effective application of Bayesian analysis of a class of well-known dynamic econometric models by means of the Gibbs sampling algorithm. Members belonging to this class are the Cochrane-Orcutt model for serial correlation, the Koyck distributed lag model, the Unit Root...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731767
Several lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731830
In this paper, we consider whether long-term inflation expectations have become better anchored in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. We do so using survey-based measures as well as financial market-based measures of long-term inflation expectations, where we construct the market-based measures from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010784200