Household indebtedness has grown sharply in the United Kingdom in recent years. This paper proposes a framework for understanding this based on a model in which households are assumed to plan their lifetime spending rationally, allowing for bequests to future generations. The model is set up to...

In this paper it is shown how a Merton-model approach can be used to develop measures of the probability of failure of individual quoted UK companies. Probability estimates are then constructed for a group of failed companies and their properties as leading indicators of failure assessed....

This paper shows how a Merton-model approach can be used to develop measures of the probability of failure of quoted UK companies. Probability estimates are constructed for a group of failed companies and their properties as leading indicators of failure assessed. Probability estimates of...

The large-value payment system in the United Kingdom (CHAPS) is highly tiered: a few settlement banks make payments on behalf of many customer banks. This paper makes use of a simulation approach to quantify by how much tiering affects, on the one hand, concentration and credit risk and, on the...

Real-time gross settlement (RTGS) systems such as CHAPS Sterling require large amounts of liquidity to support payment activity. To meet their liquidity needs, RTGS participants borrow from the central bank or rely on incoming payments from other participants. Both options can prove costly --...

This paper looks at the partial fragmentation of the euro area resulting from the sovereign debt crisis, concentrating on two specific countries: Portugal and Spain. The paper starts by describing the evolution and structure of those financial systems. It quantitatively evaluates the changes in...

The paper investigates the causes of currency crises in emerging markets. We estimate the probability of a currency crisis by applying maximum smoothly simulated likelihood to a dynamic LDV model. This approach allows us to take explicit account of the existence of intertemporal links between...

This paper evaluates the reliability of specific variables in the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) by comparing grossed-up variables from the BHPS with their corresponding national aggregates. The paper focuses on those variables that provide the most information on risks to financial...

The price of oil rose steadily between the middle of 2003 and the end of 2007, rose further and more rapidly until mid-2008 and fell sharply until the end of that year. Commentators agree that a significant part of the increase in the oil price over that period was due to rapid demand growth...