Showing 1 - 10 of 188
We propose a new information criterion for impulse response function matching estimators of the structural parameters of macroeconomic models. The main advantage of our procedure is that it allows the researcher to select the impulse responses that are most informative about the deep parameters,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005514538
This paper studies empirical facts regarding the effects of unexpected changes in aggregate macroeconomic fiscal policies on consumers that are allowed to di¤er depending on their individual characteristics. We use data from the Consumption Expenditure Survey (CEX) to estimate individual-level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011266626
The Great Recession has challenged the adequacy of existing models to explain key macroeconomic data, and raised the concern that the models might be misspecified. This paper investigates the importance of misspecification in structural models using a novel approach to detect and identify the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011266627
This paper studies stylized empirical facts regarding the effects of unexpected changes in aggregate macroeconomic policies on consumers that are allowed to differ depending on their individual characteristics. In particular, we focus on fiscal shocks due to their important effects on consumers'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011079894
While forecasting is a common practice in academia, government and business alike, practitioners are often left wondering how to choose the sample for estimating forecasting models. When we forecast inflation in 2014, for example, should we use the last 30 years of data or the last 10 years of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083425
In this paper we propose empirical methods for detecting and identifying misspecifications in DSGE models. We introduce wedges in a DSGE model and identify potential misspecification via forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) and marginal likelihood analyses. Our simulation results based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083456
This paper studies stylized empirical facts regarding the effects of unexpected changes in aggregate macroeconomic fiscal policies on consumers that are allowed to differ depending on their individual characteristics. We use data from the Consumption Expenditure Survey (CEX) to estimate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083875
This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide range of window sizes. We show that the tests...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010849591
We propose new information criteria for impulse response function matching estimators (IRFMEs). These estimators yield sampling distributions of the structural parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models by minimizing the distance between sample and theoretical impulse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011052257
While forecasting is a common practice in academia, government and business alike, practitioners are often left wondering how to choose the sample for estimating forecasting models. When we forecast inflation in 2014, for example, should we use the last 30 years of data or the last 10 years of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950609