We investigate the price dynamics of large market-capitalization U.S. equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in order to uncover trader motivations and strategy. We show that prices of highly liquid ETFs can deviate significantly from their daily net asset values. By adjusting for changes in...

This paper provides the first evidence for empirical tests of the effect of rational expectations as well as behavioral biases, including among other animal spirits such as defined by Akerlof and Shiller (2009) on the variability of trading.We have used daily data for five international capital...

We provide empirical support for the conventional wisdom that there are times when optimistic investors tend to build their hopes into castles in the air, and pay a large premium over intrinsic value for stocks of firms in the early stages of their life cycles with perceived growth...

This paper provides the first evidence for empirical sensitivity of trading volume to human psychological factors. We review therefore extensive evidence about how human psychology affects investor behavior and trading volume. Using the data for individual stocks listed on the CAC40 Stock Market...

This article attempts to examine whether the equity premium in the United States can be predicted from a com-prehensive set of 18 economic and financial predictors over a monthly out-of-sample period of 2000:2 to 2011:12, using an in-sample period of 1990:2-2000:1. To do so, we consider, in...

This article attempts to examine whether the equity premium in the United States can be predicted from a comprehensive set of 18 economic and financial predictors over a monthly out-of-sample period of 2000:2 to 2011:12, using an in-sample period of 1990:2-2000:1. To do so, we consider, in...

First externalities risk due to the size of the companies or the principle that large companies are also at risk of bankruptcy (too big to fail) are examined. The problem is illustrated by a case in which extreme risks with negative consequences for savers and investors are taken. If we...

The main objective of this paper is to present a reading of The Arcades Project by Walter Benjamin in the context of the financial crisis, in particular, reflect from a few fragments of Benjamin's work appear to lie around a Black Swan. The recovery of the fragments of The Arcades seems...

We propose a simple method to infer the forecast error associated with quarterly estimates of earnings and revenue before the firm announces realized earnings and revenue. The method uses estimates of the profit margin implied by an analyst’s forecasts of both earnings and revenue to identify...

Karlsson, Loewenstein and Seppi (2009) found that, following market downswings, investors are less likely to login to monitor their retirement portfolios. They concluded that, rather like (apocryphal) ostriches sticking their heads in the sand, investors avoid unpleasant information by reducing...