We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow...

According to statistic data of Shaanxi Province during 1997 to 2010, I conducted a comparative analysis on farmers’ property income from region, urban and rural factors and structure, established regression model, and studied the relationship between farmers’ property income and...

We find that analysts who issue more accurate earnings forecasts also issue more profitable stock recommendations. The average factor-adjusted return associated with the recommendations of analysts in the highest accuracy quintile exceeds the return for analysts in the lowest accuracy quintile...

Investors' reaction to stock recommendations is often incomplete so that there is a predictable post-recommendation drift. I investigate whether investor inattention contributes to this drift by using turnover as a proxy for investor attention. I find that the recommendation drift of firms with...

In bad times, uncertainty is high, so that investors find it more difficult to assess the prospects of the firms they invest in. Learning models suggest that in such times investors should, everything else equal, value informative signals such as analyst forecasts and recommendations more than...

We propose a simple methodology to evaluate a large number of potential explanations for the negative relation between idiosyncratic volatility and subsequent stock returns (the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle). We find that surprisingly many existing explanations explain less than 10% of the...

This paper investigates the liquidity effect in asset pricing by studying the liquidity-premium relationship of an American depositary receipt (ADR) and its underlying share. Using the [Amihud, Yakov, 2002. Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time series effects. Journal of...

This paper develops robust tests of market efficiency using statistical arbitrage which circumvent the joint-hypotheses dilemma confounding the traditional literature. Hogan, Jarrow, Teo and Warachka (2004) identify statistical arbitrage opportunities in momentum and value strategies. However,...

This paper applies the asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (AACD) model of Bauwens and Giot (2003) to estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN) using irregularly spaced transaction data. We model trade direction (buy versus sell orders) and the duration between trades...