This paper estimates macroeconomic credit risk of banks¡¦ loan portfolio based on a class of mixture vector autoregressive models. Such class of models can differentiate distributions of default rates and macroeconomic conditions for different market situations and can capture their dynamics...

As international financial integration gathers pace, interconnectivity has increased tremendously among financial institutions, financial markets and financial systems, a phenomenon to which the recent global financial crisis perhaps provided the best testimony. The interconnectivity among...

This study adopts the CoVaR methodology to analyse the tail risk relationships among European sovereigns, which provide arguably important information for policymakers to identify countries that should come under close scrutiny during the current debt crisis.

Residential mortgage rates in Hong Kong have fallen to a historic low level since late 2004, largely because of severe competition and the prevailing exceptionally low funding cost of the banks. Because of the abundance of liquidity in the banking system, HIBOR is at an abnormally deep discount...

The presence of price disparity between A- and H- shares suggests that the two markets are segmented and thus allocation of capital is inefficient. In this paper, we attempt to identify the factors contributing to the price disparity, with a view to helping policymakers find solutions to the...

This paper develops a framework for stress testing the credit exposures of Hong Kong's retail banks to macroeconomic shocks. It involves the construction of macroeconomic credit risk models, each consisting of a multiple regression model explaining the default rate of banks, and a set of...

This paper develops a model to identify the major determinants of a bank's profit, and the general level of profitability of a banking market. It found that in Hong Kong's case, market structure, such as market concentration and market shares of banks, is not a major contributory factor. Cost...

This working paper examines the degree of collusion in the banking sector of Hong Kong based on the conjectural variation approach. The results suggest that banks in Hong Kong operated in a competitive fashion in the loan market during the period 1991-2002 with no significant sign of collusion...

Banks in Hong Kong generally maintain capital adequacy ratios well above the regulatory requirement. The buffers are largely determined by the internal considerations of the banks, their responses to market discipline, and the regulatory framework. Despite the presence of excess capital, banks...

Under the framework of Basel II, banks which adopt the internal ratings-based approach will be required to compare their actual provisions with expected losses. Any shortfall (i.e., the expected loss exceeds the provision) should be deducted from capital of the bank. It is therefore important to...