Large discrepancies are often found between game-theoretic predictions for bilateral bargaining games and experiments with humans. Subgame perfection for instance predicts that, in the ultimatum game, the responding agent accepts any division of the bargaining surplus. Experimental studies, on...

We describe a system for bilateral negotiations in which artificial agents aregenerated by an evolutionary algorithm (EA). The negotiations are governed bya finite-horizon version of the alternating-offers protocol. Several issuesare negotiated simulataneously. We first analyse and validate the...

We discover mispricing in an apparently transparent market — the European soccer betting market. Efficiency differences between countries are accounted for by variations in league competitiveness. We conclude that barriers to efficiency (e.g., risk evaluation problems) may remain in...

Forecasting methods are routinely employed to predict the outcome of competitive events (CEs) and to shed light on the factors that influence participants’ winning prospects (e.g., in sports events, political elections). Combining statistical models’ forecasts, shown to be highly successful...

Accurately estimating the winning probabilities of participants in competitive events, such as elections and sports events, represents a challenge to standard forecasting frameworks such as regression or classification. They are not designed for modeling the competitive element, whereby a...

The aim of much horserace modelling is to appraise the informational efficiency of betting markets. The prevailing approach involves forecasting the runners' finish positions by means of discrete or continuous response regression models. However, theoretical considerations and empirical evidence...

This paper introduces an improved approach for forecasting the outcome of horseraces. Building upon previous literature, a state-of-the-art modelling paradigm is developed which integrates least-square support vector regression and conditional logit procedures to predict horses' winning...

This paper examines the degree to which individuals tend to be overconfident in their judgements and identifies the implications for those trading in prediction markets. The findings from laboratory-based psychological studies of overconfidence are compared and contrasted with those from...

This paper compares two approaches to predicting outcomes in a speculative market, the horserace betting market. In particular, the nature of one- and two-step conditional logit procedures involving a process for exploding the choice set are outlined, their strengths and weaknesses are compared...