In this paper we apply cointegration and Granger-causality analyses to construct linear and neural network error-correction models for an Austrian Initial Public Offerings IndeX (IPOXATX). We use the significant relationship between the IPOXATX and the Austrian Stock Market Index ATX to forecast...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...

The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...

The use of principal component techniques to estimate approximate factor models with large cross-sectional dimension is now well established. However, recent work by Inklaar, Jacobs and Romp (2003) and Boivin and Ng (2005) has cast some doubt on the importance of a large cross-sectional...

In this paper we compare the relative efficiency of different forecasting methods of space-time series when variables are spatially and temporally correlated. We consider the case of a space-time series aggregated into a single time series and the more general instance of a space-time series...

This paper has as objective to build a composite economic activity index for the local economy, created as form of measuring the economic activity. We use the factor analysis technique to determinate the components and their weights. This local index is then compared to national ones. As a...

In this paper we compare the relative efficiency of different methods of forecasting the aggregate of spatially correlated variables. Small sample simulations confirm the asymptotic result that improved forecasting performance can be obtained by imposing a priori constraints on the amount of...

Including disaggregate variables or using information extracted from the disaggregate variables into a forecasting model for an eco- nomic aggregate may improve the forecasting accuracy. In this paper we suggest to use boosting as a method to select the disaggregate variables which are most...

En este documento se realiza la construcción de un indicador líder para anticipar al comportamiento cualitativo de la actividad económica de Colombia, medida a través del comportamiento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), se utiliza la metodología de factor dinámico. Para su aplicación se...