Showing 1 - 10 of 131
[eng] We describe a new coincident probabilistic cyclical indicator developed by the Banque de France in order to detect, on a monthly basis, the turning points in the French economy’s acceleration cycle. The indicator is based on the methodology of Markov-switching models and uses the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010978402
After years of low macroeconomic volatility since the early eighties, well documented and referred to as the Great Moderation period in the literature, the 2008-2009 worldwide recession adversely impacted output levels in most of advanced countries. This Great Recession period was characterized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010896306
In the last few years, the growth in the amount of economic and financial data available has prompted econometricians to develop or adapt new methods enabling them to summarise efficiently the information contained in large databases. Of these methods, dynamic factor models have seen rapid...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010903580
This article extends earlier efforts at redating the US industrial cycles for the prewar period (1890-1938) using the methodologies proposed by Bry and Boschan (1971) and Hamilton (1989) and based on the monthly industrial production index constructed by Miron and Romer (1990). The alternative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011026172
After years of low macroeconomic volatility since the early eighties, well documented and referred to as the Great Moderation period in the literature, the 2008-2009 worldwide recession adversely impacted output levels in most of advanced countries. This Great Recession period was characterized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010747962
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010752397
In addition to quantitative assessment of economic growth using econometric models, business cycle analyses have been proved to be helpful to practitioners in order to assess current economic conditions or to anticipate upcoming fluctuations. In this paper, we focus on the acceleration cycle in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005061478
This paper compares the GDP forecasting performance of alternative factor models based on monthly time series for the French economy. These models are based on static and dynamic principal components obtained using time and frequency domain methods. We question whether it is more appropriate to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008547452
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009215610
This article extends earlier efforts at redating the US industrial cycles for the prewar period (1890–1938) using the methodologies proposed by Bry and Boschan (1971) and Hamilton (1989) and based on the monthly industrial production index constructed by Miron and Romer (1990). The alternative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009324082