This paper analyzes the value of communication in the implementation of monetary policy. The central bank is uncertain about the current state of the economy. Households and firms do not have a complete economic model of the determination of aggregate variables, including nominal interest rates,...

Real-business-cycle models rely on total factor productivity (TFP) shocks to explain the observed co-movement among consumption, investment and hours. However an emerging body of evidence identifies “investment shocks” as important drivers of business cycles. This paper shows that a...

We calibrate and simulate the model's response to `demand' shocks such as shifts in the marginal efficiency of investment, government spending shocks and news shocks. We show that investment-specific shocks can generate business cycle fluctuations that are broadly consistent with aggregate data.

This paper identifies a channel by which changes in the size and composition of government debt might generate macroeconomic instability in a standard New Keynesian model. The mechanism depends on failures of Ricardian equivalence because of learning dynamics. Under rational expectations, the...

Finally, following Smith (1993), we estimate the model using indirect inference methods. The empirical implications of the model both under learning and rational expectations are explored. Furthermore, we test the relative importance of various model frictions and learning dynamics in capturing...

Under rational expectations monetary policy is generally highly effective in stabilizing the economy. Aggregate demand management operates through the expectations hypothesis of the term structure --- anticipated movements in future short-term interest rates control current demand. This paper...

The modern theory of monetary policy emphasizes the management of expectations. In New Keynesian models frequently used for policy evaluation it is well understood that it is not so much the current interest rate, but instead anticipated movements in future interest rates that are central to...

This paper examines the consequences of the scale and composition of the public debt in policy regimes in which monetary policy is ‘passive’ and fiscal policy ‘active’. This configuration of policy is argued to be of both historical and contemporary interest, in economies such as the US...

This paper analyzes how the formation of expectations constrains monetary and fiscal policy design. Economic agents have imperfect knowledge about the economic environment and the policy regime in place. Households and firms learn about the policy regime using historical data. Regime uncertainty...

This paper analyzes the value of communication in the implementation of monetary policy. The central bank is uncertain about the current state of the economy. Households and firms are uncertain about the statistical properties of aggregate variables, including nominal interest rates, and must...