To find forecasts that are closest to Greenbook forecast from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, this paper looks for SPF cross-sectional percentile forecasts that are not encompassed by Greenbook forecast under Greenbook's loss preference, which exhibits time-varying asymmetry. To evaluate...

This paper examines forecast rationality of the Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) under asymmetric loss functions, using the method proposed by Elliott, Komunjer and Timmermann (2005) with a rolling window strategy. Over rolling periods, the degree and direction of...

This paper examines the forecast rationality of the Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) under asymmetric loss functions, using the method proposed by Elliott, Komunjer, and Timmermann (2005) with a rolling window strategy. Over rolling periods, the degree and direction of...

Many claims have been made about the potential benefits, and the potential costs, of adopting a system of universal banking in the United States. We evaluate these claims using a model where there is a moral hazard problem between banks and “borrowers,” a moral hazard problem between banks...

It is commonly argued that poorly designed banking system safety nets are largely to blame for the frequency and severity of modern banking crises. For example, “underpriced” deposit insurance and/or low reserve requirements are often viewed as factors that encourage risk-taking by banks. In...