A review essay on Bruce Caldwell, Hayek’s Challenge. An Intellectual Biography of F. A. Hayek, Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 2004, pp. xi+489 ; Alan Ebenstein, Friedrich Hayek. A Biography, New York, Palgrave, 2001, pp. xiii+403 ; Alan Ebenstein, Hayek’s Journey. The Mind of...

This paper argues that a representation of the epistemic state of the individual through a non-additive measure provides a novel account of Keynes's view of probability theory proposed in the Treatise on Probability. The paper shows, first, that Keynes's "non-numerical" probabilities can be...

The paper discusses the role of George L.S. Shackle in fostering an unconventional approach to individual decision making. Up until the early 1970s Shackle was the single critic of the probabilistic approach to decision making who proposed an alternative formal corpus for dealing with...

This paper argues that Ellsberg’s and Shackle’s frameworks for discussing the limits of the (subjective) probabilistic approach to decision theory are not as different as they may appear. To stress the common elements in their theories Keynes’s Treatise on Probability provides an essential...

On the basis of a database of more than 80 thousand records on total retails and production costs of the pharmaceutical industry worldwide we consider four classes of drugs. We evaluate the expected profits of an investment in a new drug in the four classes of pharmaceutical products by...

This note argues that a representation of the epistemic state of the individual through a non-additive measure provides a novel account of Keynes’s view of probability theory proposed in his Treatise on Probability. The paper shows, first, that Keynes’s “non-numerical probabilities” can...

This paper deals with the intellectual environment in which George L. S. Shackle’s theory of decision making was formulated and first discussed. Shackle’s approach had a great impact on decision theory in late 1940s and early 1950s being the single formalised attempt to discard the...

G.L.S Shackle’s rejection of the probability tradition stemming from Knight's definition of uncertainty was a crucial episode in the development of modern decision theory. A set of methodological statements characterizing Shackle’s stance, abandoned for long, especially after Savage’s...