There is an increasing number of studies showing that financial market crashes can be detected and predicted. The main aim of the research was to develop a technique for crashes prediction based on the analysis of durations between sequent crashes of a certain magnitude of Dow Jones Industrial...

We propose and evaluate a technique for instrumental variables estimation of linear models with conditional heteroskedasticity. The technique uses approximating parametric models for the projection of right-hand side variables onto the instrument space, and for conditional heteroskedasticity and...

The distribution and evolution of intertrade durations for frequently traded stocks at the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange are investigated. A flexible econometric model based on ARMA and GARCH is used which, when coupled with a certain class of distributions that allow for skewness and...

This essay briefly surveys optimal instrumentation in linear and nonlinear models, both cross-sectional and stationary time series. Examples of judicious construction of instruments are given.

This is a survey of most notable time series econometrics texts written in English. The essay reflects the author's opinion, as well as opinions of econometricians expressed in published book reviews.

We propose a bootstrap algorithm for autoregressions based on the approximation of the data generating process by a finite state discrete Markov chain. We discover a close connection of the proposed algorithm with existing bootstrap resampling schemes, run a small Monte-Carlo experiment, and...

We investigate the behavior of various standard and modified F, LR and LM tests in linear homoskedastic regressions, adapting an alternative asymptotic framework where the number of regressors and possibly restrictions grows proportionately to the sample size. When restrictions are not numerous,...

The existing dynamic models for realized covariance matrices do not account for an asymmetry with respect to price directions. We modify the recently proposed conditional autoregressive Wishart (CAW) model to allow for the leverage effect. In the conditional threshold autoregressive Wishart...