This study develops a new monthly euro Area‐wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area business cycle. It derives the composite ALI by applying a deviation cycle methodology with a one‐sided band pass filter and choosing nine leading series. Our main findings are that i) the applied...

This study aims at assessing empirically the determinants of changes in risk-weighted bank capital ratios in the 1990s in Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, the UK and the US. Both bank-specific characteristics, factors at the banking industry level and the degree of undercapitalization...

This article models industrial new orders across the European Union (EU) countries for various breakdowns. A common modelling framework exploits soft (business opinion surveys) as well as hard data (industrial turnover). The estimates show for about 200 cases that the model determinants...

This paper empirically examines the interest rate pass-through at the euro area level. The focus is on the pass-through of official interest rates, approximated by the overnight interest rate, to longer-term market interest rates, which, in turn, are a proxy for the marginal costs for banks to...

This study focuses on the role of equity and labour markets for holding euro area money. Equity affects money demand positively through wealth effects (financial transaction motive) and negatively via substitution effects from the expected return on equity (speculative motive). A precautionary...

This paper empirically models China's stock prices using conventional fundamentals: corporate earnings, risk-free interest rate, and a proxy for equity risk premium. It uses the estimated long-run stock price misalignments to date booms and busts, and analyses equity market reforms and excess...

This study aims at assessing empirically the determinants of changes in risk-weighted bank capital ratios in the 1990s in Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, the UK and the US. Both bank-specific characteristics, factors at the banking industry level and the degree of undercapitalization...

Focusing on the years 1980–1995 and providing empirical evidence for six European countries, namely Germany, France, Italy, the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands, the author discusses whether cross-country variations in financial structure have a systematic relationship with inter-country...

This occasional paper explains why the bank lending survey was developed by the ECB and describes its main features. It discusses the importance of credit developments for both the economy and the functioning of monetary policy, and further clarifies why the survey was introduced. Furthermore,...

Empirical results for the United States show that the credit risk premium leads the stock market by up to four weeks. They are robust across different stock market measures, empirical methods and sample periods. The finding of a flight to quality that first occurs in the corporate bond and...