This paper investigates why the slope of the yield curve predicts future economic activity in Germany and the United States. A structural VAR is used to identify aggregate supply, aggregate demand, monetary policy and inflation scare shocks and to analyse their effects on the real, nominal and...

This paper investigates why the slope of the yield curve predicts future economic activity in Germany and the United States. A structural VAR is used to identify aggregate supply, aggregate demand, monetary policy and inflation scare shocks and to analyse their effects on the real, nominal and...

The effectiveness of market discipline -- the strong built-in incentives that encourage banks and financial systems to operate soundly and efficiently -- commands much attention today, particularly in light of recent accounting scandals. As government discipline, in the form of regulation, seems...

We identify three business models using balance sheet characteristics of 222 international banks and a data-driven procedure. We find that institutions engaging mainly in commercial banking activities have lower costs and more stable profits than those more heavily involved in capital market...

AbstractThe following sections are included:IntroductionData and MethodologyFrequency-based filter analysisTurning-point analysisCharacterizing Cycles in Individual SeriesFrequency-based filter analysis: Short-term and medium-term cyclesTurning-point analysis: Short-term and medium-term...

How do conditions in the financial sector affect the macroeconomy? We summarise the common variation in a large array of financial variables into a small set of statistical factors and examine the information content of these factors when forecasting GDP and inflation in four economies. We find...

We critically review the state of the art in macro stress testing, assessing its strengths and weaknesses. We argue that, given current technology, macro stress tests are ill-suited as early warning devices, ie as tools for identifying vulnerabilities during seemingly tranquil times and for...

We characterise empirically the financial cycle using two approaches: analysis of turning points and frequency-based filters. We identify the financial cycle with the medium-term component in the joint fluctuations of credit and property prices; equity prices do not fit this picture well. We...

[eng] The euro in international financial markets : where do we stand ? . In evaluating the international role of the euro, this article adopts a portfolio balance framework. The international weight of a currency is measured by the extent to which it inspires the trust of international asset...