This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country can affect the GDP of other countries. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects of a shock as it is transmitted through other countries' output fluctuations. The paper introduces a new specification...

This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country affects other countries' GDP. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects as a shock is transmitted through output fluctuations and introduces a new specification strategy that reduces the number of...

This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country can affect the GDP of other countries. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects of a shock as it is transmitted through other countries' output fluctuations. The paper introduces a new specification...

We draw attention to an apparent puzzle in the aggregate consumption behaviour of Singaporeans. In stark contrast to the rest of the world, the average propensity to consume has plummeted to a record low of two-fifths of income in 2000 leaving the economy without a good built-in stabilizer. This...

Temporally aggregated data is a bane for Granger causality tests. The same set of variables may lead to contradictory causality inferences at different levels of temporal aggregation. Obtaining temporally disaggregated data series is impractical in many situations. Since cointegration is...

The growing affluence of the East and Southeast Asian economies has come about through a substantial increase in their economic links with the rest of the world, the OECD economies in particular. Econometric studies that try to quantify these links face a severe shortage of high frequency time...

Policy prescriptions have generally assumed that exchange rate depreciation would stimulate exports and curtail imports, while exchange rate appreciation would be detrimental to exports and encourage imports. This prediction has, however, often neglected to consider the existence of the import...