The paper presents the procedure and two structural macroeconometric models used at the National Bank of Poland for producing regular quarterly inflation projections. One of the models is a small macroeconomic model based on the New Keynesian Phillips curve, the IS curve and the exchange rate...

The importance of credit in the monetary transmission mechanism has recently attained a lot of attention due to a growing understanding that credit market imperfections can have an impact on the monetary policy effectiveness. In this study, using Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs) and...

For a central bank knowledge of the monetary policy transmission mechanism is a prerequisite for achieving its final goal, i.e. price stability. Therefore, this area of analyses and research is of key importance for central banks, including Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP). Every two years since 2011,...

The aim of the paper is to check the influence of the degree of forward-lookingness of economic agents on the optimal monetary policy rules, using several versions of a small, highly aggregated structural model describing the transmission mechanism in the spirit of the New Keynesian School. We...

On 4 March 2011, SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum and the National Bank of Poland jointly organised a conference on the theme of: "Monetary Policy after the Crisis". Following a call for papers with a large number of submissions, the scientific committee selected 9 papers, which...

The aim of this paper is to show the implications of the current financial crisis for the monetary transmission mechanism (MTM) and its effectiveness in Poland, which is an inflation-targeting emerging market economy. MTM depends on monetary policy, but also on structural features of the...

This paper considers the problem of econometric modeling of the East European Economy in transition. The description of the transition process in the Polish economy given in the paper suggests that one can distinguish two points of view on the modeling of the objects under consideration. The...

In the paper we show the macroeconomic effects of a monetary policy shock using both recursive and non-recursive SVAR decomposition. We find that the responsiveness of the CPI index and output in Poland is smaller and slower than in the euro zone. Using panel data we check how bank-specific...