This paper analyzes how the frictions in the labor market simultaneously affect the economic growth and the long run unemployment. To this goal, we develop a Schumpeterian model of endogenous growth: agents have the choice of being employed or being doing R&D activities. Unemployment is caused...

This paper analyzes how the frictions in the labor market simultaneously affect the economic growth and the long run unemployment. To this goal, we develop a schumpeterian model of endogenous growth: agents have the choice between employment and R and D activities. Unemployment is caused by the...

According to the growing “Google econometrics” literature, Google queries may help predict economic activity. The aim of our paper is to test whether these data can enhance predictions of youth unemployment in France.

We transpose the Generalized Impulse-Response Function (GIRF) developed by Koop et al. (1996) to Markov-Switching structural VARs. As the algorithm displays an exponentially increasing complexity as regards the prediction horizon, we use the collapsing technique to easily obtain simulated...

Ehrmann et al. (2003) proposed an IRF in the frame of Markov-switching structural VARs. Their IRF provides insights on the dynamics within the regime in which the shock occurs. We propose an IRF that captures the global response of the system and illustrate its use with examples.

The development of nonlinear representations and of generalized IRFs favored the study of the variables behavior in response to an economically identified shock as regards (i) the state of the system when the shock occurs, (ii) the size of the shock and (iii) the sign of the shock. Generalized...

Since the seminal paper by Koop et al. [1996], there has been few papers on Generalized Impulse-Response Function (GIRF) for Markov-Switching structural VARs. This issue is very important for who wants to investigate the presence of asymmetries in the wake of economically-identified shocks. In...

Meese and Rogoff [1983] show that macroeconomic models of the Seventies fail to outperform the random walk exchange rate forecasts. Macroeconomics thus provides useless information as far as out-of-sample exchange rate forecasting is concerned. However, since Meese and Rogoff's seminal paper,...