In this paper, we describe and study a class of linear shrinkage estimators of the covariance matrix that is well-suited for high dimensional matrices, has a rather wide domain of applicability, and is rooted into the Gaussian conjugate framework of Chen (1979). We propose here a new look at...

How will our estimates of climate uncertainty evolve in the coming years, as new learning is acquired and climate research makes further progress? As a tentative contribution to this question, we argue here that the future path of climate uncertainty may itself be quite uncertain, and that our...

type="main" xml:id="rssb12058-abs-0001" <title type="main">Summary</title> <p>The paper focuses primarily on temperature extremes measured at 24 European stations with at least 90 years of data. Here, the term extremes refers to rare excesses of daily maxima and minima. As mean temperatures in this region have been warming...</p>

Probability weighted moments (PWM) are classically used in hydrology. Here we study their properties for small samples. Links between PWMs and the hazard rate ordering are identified. We propose PWM tail equivalences and derive explicit variances for PWM unbiased estimators.

The popularity of state-space models comes from their flexibilities and the large variety of applications they have been applied to. For multivariate cases, the assumption of normality is very prevalent in the research on Kalman filters. To increase the applicability of the Kalman filter to a...

To understand the nature and cause of natural climate variability, it is important to possess an accurate estimate of past climate forcings. Direct measurements that are reliable only exist for the past few decades. Therefore knowledge of prior variations has to be established based on indirect...

We present a new parametric model for the angular measure of a multivariate extreme value distribution. Unlike many parametric models that are limited to the bivariate case, the flexible model can describe the extremes of random vectors of dimension greater than two. The novel construction...