Showing 1 - 10 of 168
In this paper we argue that measured (RPI) inflation is conceptually mismatched with core inflation: the difference is more than just "measurement error". We propose a technique for measuring core inflation, based on an explicit long-run economic hypothesis. Core inflation is defined as that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016878
Many alternative measures of core, or underlying, inflation have been proposed that are based on stripping out some unwanted or excessively volatile elements from the headline rate. A potential drawback of such measures is that they are necessarily atheoretic - based largely on purely...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005737932
In this paper, we argue that measured (RPI) inflation is conceptually mismatched with core inflation: the difference is more than just "measurement error". We propose a technique for measuring core inflation, based on an explicit long-run economic hypothesis. Core inflation is defined as that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010720253
Real Business Cycle (RBC) and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) methods have become essential components of the macroeconomist’s toolkit. This literature review stresses recently developed techniques for computation and inference, providing a supplement to the Romer (2006)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005481440
A popular account for the demise of the UK’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily-revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005395288
This study aims to assess the scope for monetary policymakers to aggregate probabilistic interest rate advice. The members of a Shadow Board give probabilistic assessments of the appropriate (target) interest rate for Australia in real time. The pilot project will be running in August, September...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011186030
An overview is provided of the issues raised in the recent literature on the use of real-time data in the context of nowcasting and forecasting UK macroeconomic events. The ideas are illustrated through two specific applications using UK real-time data available over 1961-2006 and providing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010786163
Recursive-weight forecast combination is often found to an ineffective method of improving point forecast accuracy in the presence of uncertain instabilities. We examine the effectiveness of this strategy for forecast densities using (many) VARs and ARs of output, prices and interest rates. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004987971
We characterise the relationships between preliminary and subsequent measurements for 16 commonly-used UK macroeconomic indicators drawn from two existing real-time data sets and a new nominal variable database. Most preliminary measurements are biased predictors of subsequent measurements, with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005345088
This study aims to assess the scope for monetary policymakers to aggregate probabilistic interest rate advice. The members of a Shadow Board give probabilistic assessments of the appropriate (target) interest rate for Australia in real time. The pilot project will be running in August, September...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009193209