How should policy be optimally designed when a monetary authority faces a private sector that is somewhat skeptical about policy announcements and which interprets economic data as providing evidence about the monetary authority's preferences or its ability to carry through on policy plans? To...

We study the role rumors play in revolutions using a global game model. Agents with diverse private information rationally evaluate the informativeness of rumors about the regime strength. Without communication among agents, wild rumors are discounted and agents are generally less responsive to...

How should policy be optimally designed when a monetary authority faces a private sector that is skeptical about policy announcements and makes inferences about the monetary authority’s ability to follow through on policy plans from economic data? To provide an answer to this question, we...

In this paper, we examine how learning about disaster risk affects asset pricing in an endowment economy. We extend the literature on rare disasters by allowing for two sources of uncertainty: (1) the lack of historical data results in unknown parameters for the disaster process, and (2) the...

An informational role of policy arises in economies where large fluctuations are triggered by selffulfilling expectation switches between efficient "optimism" and inefficient "pessimism," a feature that is common in many dynamic economies with coordination failures. Policy affects the...

Intertemporal choice has been drawing attention in econophysics and neuroeconomics. In this paper, we experimentally estimate the parameters and AICc (Akaike Information Criterion with small sample correction) of intertemporal choice models (exponential, simple hyperbolic, quasi hyperbolic, and...

To survey the tea resource advantages in Guizhou's mountainous areas and complete rational layout of pollution-free tea planting areas, we take the case of Guiding County in Guizhou Province to establish the comprehensive evaluation indicator system of pollution-free land for tea plantation and...

We introduce new models for analyzing the mortality dependence between individuals in a couple. The mortality risk dependence is usually taken into account in the actuarial literature by introducing an Archimedean copula. This practice implies symmetric effects on the remaining lifetime of the...

According to "Pollution Haven Effect," in order to circumvent stringent environment standards, polluting industries in developed countries will be chosen to locate into developing countries; another way is that developed countries increase imports of pollution-intensive products instead of...

Many financial markets are characterized by strong relationships and networks, rather than arm's-length, spot market transactions. We examine the performance consequences of this organizational structure in the context of relationships established when VCs syndicate portfolio company...