We propose a generalization of the rational expectations (RE) hypothesis: as in the original approach by Muth (1961), the case of multiple solutions is the natural case, and expectations are formed by randomizing across the infinite RE solutions. We call our approach: "rational sunspots". The...

This paper uses the Kalman filter to estimate potential output as a latent process. We estimate two Dynamic Linear Models, comparing the results obtained through a traditional and a New Keynesian model. We verify that the traditional measures of output gap, even if usually applied in the...

The aim of this paper is to analyze the forecasting performance of alternative model for the US inflation rate over the period 1950.1-2002.7. NAIRU Phillips curve models forecasts are contrasted with those obtained by a special class of nonlinear time series models, the threshold autoregressive...

We build a dynamic general equilibrium model with staggered wages that incorpo- rates relative wage concern on the part of workers. We then investigate the effects of money shocks on both inflation and output. In contrast to previous models of stag- gered wages/prices, both output and inflation...

Recent literature reaches contrasting conclusions on the ability of price/wage staggering models to generate output persistence. The authors derive fairly general results from a stylised log-linear model which encompasses most of the microfound model of price/wage staggering.

Recent quantitative dynamic general equilibrium models have cast serious doubts on the explanatory power of staggered wage/price setting in accounting for both output and inflation persistence. The authors enlarge a dynamic general equilibrium model with staggered wages by incorporating...

We study the output costs of a reduction in monetary growth in a dynamic general equilibrium model with staggered wages. The money wage is fixed for two periods, and is chosen according to intertemporal optimization. Agents have labour market monopoly power. We show that the introduction of...

In this paper we incorporate staggered wage setting a la Taylor (1979) into an optimizing dynamic general equilibrium framework. The aim is to study whether staggered wages could induce a high degree of persistence in the real effects of money shocks, as some recent studies have suggested.

Most of the papers in the sticky-price literature are based on a log-linearization around the zero inflation steady state, a simplifying but counterfactual assumption. This paper shows that when trend inflation is considered, both the long-run and the short-run properties of DGE models based on...

In this paper, we show that low trend inflation strongly affects the dynamics of a standard Neo-keynesian model where monetary policy is described by a standard Taylor rule. In particular, we show that trend inflation: (i) enlarges the indeterminacy region in the parameter space, substantially...