During risk-off episodes, the yen is a safe haven currency and on average appreciates against the U.S. dollar. We investigate the proximate causes of yen risk-off appreciations. We find that neither capital inflows nor expectations of the future monetary policy stance can explain the yen’s...

Japan's key fiscal challenge is to put public finances on a more sustainable footing. This paper investigates the macroeconomic implications of alternative fiscal strategies for Japan using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model. The results suggest that (i) an adjustment package that achieves primary...

[fre] Les chercheurs dans des institutions ayant pour responsabilité de formuler des politiques économiques ont déployé un effort significatif pour développer une nouvelle génération de modèles macro-économiques reposant sur des bases micro-économiques plus rigoureuses. L’article...

Japan has the most rapidly aging population in the world. This affects growth and fiscal sustainability, but the potential impact on inflation has been studied less. We use the IMF’s Global Integrated Fiscal and Monetary Model (GIMF) and find substantial deflationary pressures from aging,...

This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of different timing and composition of fiscal adjustment in the United Kingdom using the IMF’s Global Fiscal Model. Early consolidation dampens aggregate demand in the short term, but increases output in the long term as smaller primary...

We explore the underlying determinants of the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy and tax and social security reform using the Global Fiscal Model (GFM). We show that the planning horizon of consumers, access to financial markets, and the elasticity of labor supply, as well as the...

Demographic pressures will materialize in many economies over the next few decades. We examine the macroeconomic impact of alternative fiscal adjustment and structural reform strategies to address these global aging pressures using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model (GFM). The results suggest...

Japan's key fiscal challenge is to put public finances on a more sustainable footing. This paper investigates the macroeconomic implications of alternative fiscal strategies for Japan using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model. The results suggest that: (i) an adjustment package that achieves primary...