We draw on a newly collected historical dataset of fiscal variables for a large panel of countries—to our knowledge, the most comprehensive database currently available—to gauge the degree of fiscal prudence or profligacy for each country over the past several decades....

The opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean’s tourism industry. This study models the impact of such an opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling for...

Market-level microstructure models of asset pricing succeed where dealer-level models do not. This study addresses this empirical difficulty in the context of foreign exchange dealers. New evidence is presented rejecting the latter models' specifications of how information asymmetry and...

Market makers learn about asset values as they set intraday prices and absorb portfolio flows. Absorbing these flows causes inventory imbalances. Previous work has argued that market makers change prices to manage incoming flows and offset inventory imbalances. This study argues that they have...

An opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean's tourism industry. This study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling...

This paper studies the participation and performance of sophisticated versus unsophisticated auction participants in an environment with numerous bidders, uncertainty, and asymmetric information. We examine multi-unit, pay-as-bid, currency auctions conducted by the Central Bank of Venezuela. We...

This study addresses the empirical viability of microstructure models of dealer price setting. New evidence is presented rejecting these models' specifications of how information asymmetry and inventory accumulation affect dealer pricing. This rejection is consistent with those of other...

This paper extends the probabilistic debt sustainability analysis (DSA) developed by Celasun, Debrun, and Ostry (2006) to account explicitly for parameter estimation errors in the debt projection algorithm. This extension highlights public debt projection uncertainty resulting from both the...

Dealers learn about asset values as they set prices and absorb informed order flow. These flows cause inventory imbalances. This study models price setting in markets such as foreign exchange, U.S. treasury bonds, European sovereign bonds, and the London Stock Exchange, where market makers have...