proposed. This distribution is fitted to recursively obtained forecast errors of monthly and annual inflation for 38 countries …. It is found that this distribution fits inflation forecasts errors better than the two-piece normal distribution, which … is often used for inflation forecasting. The new type of ‘fan charts’ net of the epistemic (potentially predictable …

The ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve to explain US inflation dynamics when official central bank forecasts … (Greenbook forecasts) are used as a proxy for inflation expectations is examined. The New Keynesian Phillips curve is estimated … using actual data on future inflation as conventionally employed in empirical work under the assumption of rational …

Forecasting future inflation and nowcasting contemporaneous inflation are difficult. We propose a new and parsimonious … model for nowcasting headline and core inflation in the U.S. price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the … and PCE inflation also significantly outperform those from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, with similar nowcasting …

calibration error in a number of economic applications including recession and inflation prediction, using both forecasts made and … calibration in professional forecasts of recessions and inflation. We also present evidence of asymmetries in the performance of … inflation forecasts based on real-time output gaps. Une prévision probabiliste représente la probabilité qu'un événement futur …

. The consequences of using real-time data for inflation forecasts, the dynamic interaction of output gaps and inflation …

-time for future inflation is tested by means of an out-of-sample forecast exercise and found to be very limited. Generally, the …

estimation of the output gap and assess their usefulness for predicting inflation. Our results suggest that inference based on ex …A stable predictive relationship between inflation and the output gap, often referred to as a Phillips curve, provides … usefulness of output gap measures for forecasting inflation is often based on data that are not available when actual forecasts …